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Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers

Quoten und Plattform-Vergleich für „Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers" — live aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch, kuratiert von Prediction Wetten.

O/U 204.5 95% O/U 206.5 93% O/U 208.5 92% O/U 210.5 89% Volumen: $1.3M Liquidität: $3.5M Schließt: 26 Oct 2026
Live-Markt öffnen →
Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers

Plattform-Vergleich

PlattformJA-QuoteNEIN-QuoteGebührKYCAuszahlung
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
95% 5% 0 % (USDC on-chain) Bis $1.500 ohne KYC USDC, automatisch via UMA Auf Polymarket ansehen →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
95% 5% 0% Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH USDC, on-chain Auf Polymarket ansehen →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Bis 7 % pro Trade US-only, KYC erforderlich USD Auf Polymarket ansehen →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5 % Kommission Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade GBP / EUR Auf Polymarket ansehen →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Spielgeld (mana) Keine — Spielgeld Mana (kein Cash-Out) Auf Polymarket ansehen →

Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.

ErgebnisWahrscheinlichkeit
O/U 204.595%
O/U 206.593%
O/U 208.592%
O/U 210.589%
O/U 212.587%
1H O/U 101.587%
Cavaliers O/U 106.586%
O/U 214.584%
James Harden: Assists O/U 3.583%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.582%
O/U 216.581%
1H O/U 103.581%
1H O/U 99.581%
Cavaliers O/U 108.581%
Timberwolves O/U 103.580%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.579%
O/U 218.578%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 1.578%
1H O/U 105.576%
Cavaliers O/U 110.576%
Timberwolves O/U 105.575%
O/U 220.574%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.574%
1H O/U 97.573%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.572%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 3.571%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 0.571%
Cavaliers O/U 112.571%
O/U 222.570%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.570%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.569%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 1.569%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.569%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.569%
1H O/U 107.569%
Timberwolves O/U 107.569%
O/U 224.567%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.566%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 1.566%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.566%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.565%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.565%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.565%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 9.565%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.565%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.564%
Cavaliers O/U 114.564%
O/U 226.563%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 1.563%
Timberwolves O/U 109.563%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.562%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.562%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.562%
1H O/U 109.562%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 55.562%
Spread -1.561%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.561%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.561%
James Harden: Points O/U 14.560%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.560%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.560%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.560%
Spread -2.559%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 1.559%
4Q O/U 58.559%
O/U 228.558%
Cavaliers O/U 116.558%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.557%
Spread -3.556%
James Harden: Points O/U 9.556%
1H Spread -1.556%
Timberwolves O/U 111.556%
1H O/U 111.555%
Spread -4.554%
O/U 230.554%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.554%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.554%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 3.554%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.554%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.553%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.553%
James Harden: Assists O/U 5.553%
3Q O/U 54.553%
3Q O/U 58.553%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.552%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 1.552%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.552%
James Harden: Assists O/U 1.552%
3Q O/U 56.552%
4Q O/U 56.552%
Cavaliers O/U 118.552%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.551%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 1.551%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.551%
2Q O/U 55.551%
Timberwolves O/U 113.551%
Team to Score First50%
Odd/Even Score50%
Overtime?50%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
1Q Spread -3.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -4.550%
1Q Spread -6.550%
1Q O/U 63.550%
1Q O/U 65.550%
1Q O/U 69.550%
1Q O/U 45.550%
2Q Spread -3.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
2Q O/U 51.550%
2Q O/U 53.550%
2Q O/U 59.550%
3Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -5.550%
3Q Spread -2.550%
3Q Spread -4.550%
3Q Spread -6.550%
3Q O/U 64.550%
3Q O/U 66.550%
3Q O/U 62.550%
4Q Spread -3.550%
4Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -2.550%
4Q Spread -4.550%
4Q O/U 60.550%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 59.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 63.550%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 61.550%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 57.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 55.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 57.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 59.550%
Cavaliers 2H O/U 61.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 53.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 55.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 57.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 59.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 61.550%
Spread -5.549%
O/U 232.549%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.549%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.549%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.549%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.549%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.549%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 5.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.549%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.549%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.549%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.549%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.549%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.549%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.549%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.549%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.549%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.549%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.549%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.549%
James Harden: Steals O/U 0.549%
James Harden: Steals O/U 1.549%
James Harden: Steals O/U 2.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.549%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.549%
Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 1.549%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 0.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 1.549%
Peyton Watson: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.549%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.549%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 3.549%
1Q O/U 57.549%
3Q O/U 60.549%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.549%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 0.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 1.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: Steals O/U 2.549%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.549%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 29.549%
Race to 1048%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.548%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 1.548%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.548%
1H O/U 113.548%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.548%
3Q Spread -1.548%
O/U 233.547%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.547%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.547%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.547%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.547%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.547%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.547%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.547%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.547%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.547%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 34.547%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 19.547%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.547%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.547%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.547%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.547%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 44.547%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 34.547%
James Harden: Points O/U 34.547%
1H Spread -3.547%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 29.547%
Spread -6.546%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.546%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 19.546%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.546%
Race to 2045%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.545%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.545%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.545%
2Q Spread -2.545%
Race to 3044%
O/U 234.544%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.544%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.544%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.544%
1Q Spread -2.544%
2Q O/U 57.544%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 52.544%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.543%
James Harden: Points O/U 29.543%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.543%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.543%
1H O/U 115.543%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 56.543%
Timberwolves O/U 115.543%
Cavaliers O/U 120.543%
Spread -7.542%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.542%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.542%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.542%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 54.542%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.541%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.541%
Cavaliers 1H O/U 53.541%
O/U 236.540%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.540%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.540%
Evan Mobley: Blocks O/U 1.540%
1H Spread -5.540%
1Q O/U 59.540%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 60.540%
Spread -8.539%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.539%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.539%
1H Moneyline39%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 0.539%
Timberwolves O/U 117.539%
Cavaliers O/U 122.539%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers38%
Peyton Watson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.538%
Peyton Watson: Steals O/U 0.538%
Spread -9.537%
O/U 238.537%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.537%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 9.537%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.537%
1H O/U 117.537%
1Q Spread -1.537%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.536%
Donovan Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.536%
2Q Spread -1.536%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.535%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 58.535%
Spread -1.534%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.534%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.534%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 14.534%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.534%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.534%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.534%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.534%
1H Spread -0.534%
1H O/U 123.534%
Cavaliers O/U 124.534%
Spread -10.533%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.533%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.533%
Timberwolves O/U 119.533%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.532%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 1.532%
Evan Mobley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.532%
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.531%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.531%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.531%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.531%
1H Spread -7.531%
James Harden: Points O/U 16.530%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.530%
James Harden: Points O/U 19.530%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 8.530%
James Harden: Assists O/U 11.530%
1H Spread -2.530%
1Q O/U 61.530%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.529%
Spread -3.528%
Spread -12.528%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.528%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.528%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.528%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.528%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 2.528%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.528%
James Harden: Assists O/U 7.528%
1H O/U 119.528%
Timberwolves O/U 121.528%
Cavaliers O/U 126.528%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.527%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.527%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 13.526%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.526%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.526%
Donovan Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.526%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.525%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.525%
1H Spread -9.525%
1H O/U 121.525%
Spread -5.524%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.524%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.524%
1H O/U 127.524%
Spread -14.523%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.523%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.523%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.523%
1H Spread -4.523%
1H O/U 125.523%
Cavaliers O/U 128.523%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.522%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.522%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.522%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.522%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.522%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.522%
Timberwolves O/U 123.522%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 7.522%
James Harden: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.521%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.521%
Jarrett Allen: Blocks O/U 1.521%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.520%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.520%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 3.520%
Jaylon Tyson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.520%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.520%
Spread -16.519%
Spread -7.519%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.519%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.519%
1H Spread -11.519%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.518%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.518%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.518%
O/U 250.517%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.517%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 3.517%
1H Spread -6.517%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.516%
1H Spread -13.516%
Timberwolves O/U 125.516%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.515%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 5.515%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.515%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 5.515%
Spread -9.514%
Spread -18.514%
O/U 252.514%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.514%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.514%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.514%
1H Spread -8.514%
O/U 254.513%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.513%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.513%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.513%
Spread -11.512%
Spread -20.512%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.512%
1H O/U 129.512%
Sam Merrill: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.511%
1Q O/U 67.511%
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.510%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.510%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.510%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.510%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.510%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.510%
James Harden: Assists O/U 9.510%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 3.510%
1H Spread -15.510%
Spread -13.59%
Spread -22.59%
O/U 256.59%
Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.59%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.59%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.59%
1H Spread -10.59%
O/U 258.58%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.58%
James Harden: Points O/U 24.58%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.58%
Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.58%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.58%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.58%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.58%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.58%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 5.58%
1H Spread -12.58%
Spread -24.57%
O/U 260.57%
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.57%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.57%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.57%
1H Spread -14.57%
1H Spread -17.57%
1H Spread -19.57%
Spread -15.56%
Spread -26.56%
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.56%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 5.56%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 7.56%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.56%
Spread -17.55%
Spread -32.55%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.55%
1H Spread -16.55%
Spread -19.54%
Spread -28.54%
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 19.54%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 19.54%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 7.54%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 5.54%
Spread -30.53%
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 7.53%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 3.53%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 5.53%
Spread -21.52%
Spread -23.52%

Markt-Kontext

Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 37% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-26T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.

Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.

Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.

Live-Daten & Statistiken

Der Polymarket-Orderbuch-Preis bewertet O/U 204.5 mit 95% bei "Prognose: Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers".

O/U 204.5 95% Andere 5%

Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.3M.

Methodik dieser Bewertung

Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.

Auflösung & Auszahlung

Bei Auflösung tritt der UMA-Oracle-Mechanismus in Aktion: ein Vorschlagender stellt das Ergebnis mit einem Bond ein, jeder Token-Halter kann es innerhalb von zwei Stunden disputieren. Ohne Dispute wird das Ergebnis akzeptiert und der Smart Contract zahlt sofort aus.

Auf Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert) erfolgt die Auflösung über die hauseigene Clearing-Engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settelt nach Match-Ende in der jeweiligen Konto-Währung. Manifold zahlt keine Cash-Beträge — nur die platforme-eigene "Mana"-Währung.

Häufige Fragen

Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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