Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 67% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 38% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 31% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 26% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 98% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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