Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 13% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Norway vs. England - Player Props" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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