Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| Jaguars O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 93% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 29.5 | 91% |
| O/U 31.5 | 90% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 85% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| O/U 37.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| O/U 40.5 | 67% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 65% |
| Jaguars O/U 20.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 62% |
| Spread -0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Jaguars O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Jaguars O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Jaguars by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jaguars 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 45% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| O/U 48.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Patriots vs. Jaguars | 41% |
| Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| O/U 50.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 51.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 32% |
| Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Spread -8.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 53.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| Spread -5.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| O/U 55.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 56.5 | 21% |
| O/U 57.5 | 20% |
| Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 12% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| O/U 63.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| Spread -21.5 | 7% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Basierend auf echtem Kapital beträgt die aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit für prognose: patriots vs. jaguars 94%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". I…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $223K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23be123c%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Patriots vs. Jaguars" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →