Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 92% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 84% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Spread -0.5 | 79% |
| Spread -1.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 76% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 76% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 74% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 74% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 73% |
| Chargers O/U 10.5 | 73% |
| O/U 34.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 71% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 36.5 | 67% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -3.5 | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 64% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Chargers O/U 13.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 59% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 58% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| O/U 40.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Chargers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chargers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chargers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Chargers O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 45% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 17.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 36% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 36% |
| O/U 46.5 | 35% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 35% |
| Chargers O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 35% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 34% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 31% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Chargers O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Exact Margin: Chargers by 1-6 | 28% |
| Safety? | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| Chargers 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 50.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -17.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Chargers O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs | 22% |
| Spread -19.5 | 22% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| O/U 52.5 | 20% |
| Spread -1.5 | 20% |
| Chargers O/U 27.5 | 20% |
| Chargers O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Spread -2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Chargers O/U 23.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 58.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 9% |
| Chargers O/U 26.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| O/U 66.5 | 6% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -8.5 | 5% |
| Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Markt-Kontext
Der Prognosemarkt für „Prognose: Chargers vs. Chiefs" bewertet dieses Ergebnis derzeit mit 94% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit. In the upcoming NFL football game between Chargers and Chiefs, scheduled for October 18 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chargers" if Chargers win the game. This market will resolve to "Chie…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $104K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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