Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 82% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 79% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 68% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 62% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 59% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 56% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 53% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 53% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 48% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 36% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 36% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 35% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 31% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 26% |
| Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 24% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 24% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 23% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 21% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 8% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 84% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Grizzlies vs. Warriors. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $557K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite ist als Vergleichs-Snapshot konzipiert: ein Live-Kurs (Polymarket), vier Referenz-Plattformen mit ihren Schlüssel-Eigenschaften, und ein durchgehender Pfad zur Ausführung — alle Trade-Buttons routen zu Prediction Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch direkt spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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