Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 221.5 | 85% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| O/U 224.5 | 81% |
| Pacers O/U 113.5 | 81% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 78% |
| O/U 227.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 114.5 | 76% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 74% |
| O/U 230.5 | 71% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 58.5 | 71% |
| Pacers O/U 117.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 69% |
| O/U 231.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 67% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 67% |
| O/U 232.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 233.5 | 64% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 63% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 60.5 | 63% |
| O/U 234.5 | 62% |
| O/U 235.5 | 61% |
| Spread -4.5 | 60% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 57.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| O/U 236.5 | 58% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Pacers O/U 121.5 | 57% |
| O/U 237.5 | 56% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Mavericks O/U 115.5 | 56% |
| O/U 238.5 | 55% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 55% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 55% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 55% |
| Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 62.5 | 53% |
| O/U 239.5 | 53% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 122.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 52% |
| Pacers O/U 123.5 | 52% |
| O/U 240.5 | 51% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 60.5 | 49% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Naji Marshall: Steals O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 47% |
| Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| Overtime? | 46% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 64.5 | 44% |
| O/U 243.5 | 43% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| Spread -9.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 14.5 | 42% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Pacers O/U 126.5 | 41% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 24.5 | 40% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 61.5 | 39% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 246.5 | 37% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 37% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -11.5 | 36% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 66.5 | 35% |
| Mavericks O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 12.5 | 34% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Pacers O/U 128.5 | 34% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| O/U 249.5 | 31% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 4.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | 30% |
| Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 29% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 29% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Points O/U 14.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Obi Toppin: Assists O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Zaccharie Risacher: Assists O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 130.5 | 26% |
| 4Q O/U 60.5 | 26% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Pacers O/U 131.5 | 25% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 24% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 24% |
| Pacers O/U 127.5 | 24% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Mavericks O/U 125.5 | 23% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Max Christie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 21% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 20% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Pacers O/U 133.5 | 20% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 18% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 39.5 | 17% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 16% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 24.5 | 16% |
| Max Christie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 15% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 15% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 24.5 | 15% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 15% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 14% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Mavericks O/U 126.5 | 14% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 15.5 | 13% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 11% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 34.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Tyrese Haliburton: Assists O/U 13.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Max Christie: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 85% Chance für prognose: mavericks vs. pacers. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to "Pacers…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $275K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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