Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 96% |
| Chiefs O/U 10.5 | 96% |
| O/U 26.5 | 95% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 89% |
| O/U 32.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 86% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | 85% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Chiefs O/U 20.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 80% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 78% |
| 1H Moneyline | 75% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| Dolphins O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 72% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| O/U 40.5 | 68% |
| Spread -6.5 | 67% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| O/U 42.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 60% |
| Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| O/U 43.5 | 58% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| Spread -9.5 | 54% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Dolphins O/U 16.5 | 54% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs O/U 26.5 | 51% |
| Dolphins O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Dolphins by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Chiefs Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Chiefs 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Dolphins 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -13.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 40% |
| O/U 50.5 | 38% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Dolphins O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 31% |
| Spread -17.5 | 30% |
| Spread -19.5 | 30% |
| Spread -19.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 25% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| Chiefs 1H O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 56.5 | 22% |
| Spread -21.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 9% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -8.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Chiefs vs. Dolphins. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 85% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $134K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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