Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 80% |
| O/U 28.5 | 77% |
| O/U 30.5 | 77% |
| O/U 32.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| O/U 36.5 | 71% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State | 64% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 58% |
| Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| O/U 44.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Nebraska O/U 27.5 | 48% |
| Michigan State O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 42% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| O/U 50.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| Spread -12.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| O/U 56.5 | 34% |
| O/U 52.5 | 33% |
| O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| Nebraska O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| O/U 68.5 | 29% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Michigan State O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 27% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Spread -20.5 | 15% |
| Spread -11.5 | 12% |
| O/U 64.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
Markt-Kontext
Nebraska vs. Michigan State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 71% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T21:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $211K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Prediction Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Nebraska vs. Michigan State" auf Prediction Wetten handeln
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