Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Prediction Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| James Madison O/U 20.5 | 90% |
| Spread -0.5 | 89% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State | 86% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 86% |
| Spread -1.5 | 85% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| James Madison O/U 23.5 | 83% |
| O/U 37.5 | 81% |
| Spread -3.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| O/U 39.5 | 73% |
| O/U 41.5 | 73% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 70% |
| Spread -7.5 | 66% |
| O/U 43.5 | 66% |
| O/U 47.5 | 66% |
| Spread -8.5 | 64% |
| O/U 45.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 59% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 53% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| James Madison vs. Appalachian State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| James Madison O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Appalachian State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| James Madison Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 49% |
| Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| O/U 49.5 | 44% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| O/U 51.5 | 34% |
| O/U 53.5 | 34% |
| Spread -20.5 | 29% |
| O/U 55.5 | 27% |
| Appalachian State O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| O/U 57.5 | 23% |
| O/U 59.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 15% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| O/U 65.5 | 13% |
| Spread -1.5 | 12% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 12% |
| Spread -2.5 | 11% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 11% |
| O/U 69.5 | 9% |
| O/U 71.5 | 9% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| O/U 73.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: James Madison vs. Appalachian State — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between James Madison and Appalachian State, scheduled for October 22 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "James Madison" if James Madison win the game. Thi…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $281K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Prediction Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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